As often happens to me, I’m surfing the web for who knows what and wind up on another survival blog, this time PrepaerdnessPro.com and began reading Kellene Bishop’s article on A Seven Year Famine. I remember having read the article which was originally published about a year ago when we were having a very significant drought going on here in much of the U.S. At the time I was intrigued in her line of reasoning–I suggest you read the article yourself–but ultimately shrugged it off because there was no way I felt that I could prepare myself and family for SEVEN years of famine!! After all, I can barely count that high. 😉
72 Hours, 3 Months, 1 Year… What’s Enough?
As you well know, the abysmal recommendations of 72 hours or even a few weeks that the authorities recommend you be prepared is simply not enough. In most cases, a few months is a more appropriate minimum recommendation–if you ask me–to be self-reliant for most calamities that may befall us in our modern society, especially if the expectation is that the services we rely upon–food distribution, water, electricity, etc–will resume.
Obviously, more (of everything) is better and most people suggest that your *ultimate* goal is be prepared for about a year. After all, a full year of self-reliance would get you to the next growing season, though a bad winter, and at least allow you options that the majority of people won’t have. As for me, a full year of self-reliance has been my personal goal. In some respects we’re there, but in other we’re honestly not that close. Sadly, 72 hours, 3 months, and even 1 year aren’t enough. Before I discuss much about why seven years is the *new* goal, let’s define what drought and famine mean…
What is Drought?
According to Wikipedia, a drought is “Drought is an extended period when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply whether surface or underground water. A drought can last for months or years, or may be declared after as few as 15 days.[1] Generally, this occurs when a region receives consistently below average precipitation. It can have a substantial impact on the ecosystem and agriculture of the affected region. Although droughts can persist for several years, even a short, intense drought can cause significant damage[2] and harm the local economy.”
When I imagine a drought, I imagine a scenario where there’s NO water; perhaps this is a result of too many movies and television shows, but the reality is that a drought is nothing more than significantly less than average rainfall (or surface water too) for an extended period of time (weeks, months, years). Certainly, this is relative to the area and, so, a drought in the Florida is different than a drought in Arizona. Regardless, less water is less water, right? Again, a drought doesn’t mean no water but I would imagine it can seem that way.
What is Famine?
Wikipedia defines famine as “A famine is a widespread scarcity of food,[1] caused by several factors including crop failure, population unbalance, or government policies. This phenomenon is usually accompanied or followed by regional malnutrition, starvation, epidemic, and increased mortality. Nearly every continent in the world has experienced a period of famine throughout history. Some countries, particularly in sub-Sahara Africa, continue to have extreme cases of famine.”
Similarly, when I imagine a famine I think of no food to be found anywhere. Sadly, this is closer to the truth. Even worse is that droughts and famines tend to go hand-in-hand because, obviously, you must have water to grow crops.
The Number’s Say it ALL
Though I’m not entirely sure where Kellene got her numbers from, she stated that there have been over 2,200 reported famines throughout history and that ONLY 5 of those lasted a single year. Stop and think about that one for a moment and re-read it a few times.
If this is true, and you can actually count the number of famines that lasted but ONE year when, in fact, there have been thousands, then preparing to be self-reliant for a year means you’re really only preparing for 0.2272% of possible famine scenarios based on historical data!
This suggests to me that you’re little better off than those people who choose to do nothing, after all, what about the other 99.772% of historical famines?
Again, don’t rely on just what Kellene states (or even what I write here) do a Google search and you’ll find plenty plenty of references that point out most famines last longer than a single year. I think it behooves you and I to pay attention to history and to use it as our guide.
But Droughts and Famines Don’t Happen HERE!
You might be tempted to think, “Oh, REAL droughts and famines ONLY occur to OTHER people, in FOREIGN countries and, besides, we haven’t had a REAL drought or famine since Biblical times!” Well, not quite. A simple Google or Wikipedia search indicates that droughts (US-specific) and famines do happen all over the world, including the United States, and continue to happen to this day.
To make matters worse is the fact that we in the Untied States continue to draw a vast majority of our water to grow crops (here in the Midwest) from underground aquifers, something that can’t go on forever. Just think about what would happen to our level of food production if we couldn’t draw water from these aquifers? It would probably plummet. Oh, and that has nothing to do with the very real devastation that insects and blight have on crops on a yearly basis… and I’m sure these types of problems tend to be worse when times are tough.
Drought is the Bigger Concern
In my opinion, drought (water) is a much bigger concern than famine (food) for the simple fact that enough food can be stored, albeit only subsistence levels of food at best, for the long term in quantities sufficient to see you through even seven years of little to no food production. Granted, there are ways you can and should supplement typical long term food storage foods, such as canning vegetables, preserving meat, freeze-dried foods, and even multi-vitamins if you believe in them… it’s water that’s the real problem.
You see, water is critical to darn near EVERYTHING, from keeping you well hydrated to growing crops, appropriate hygiene, cleaning needs, the laundry, and so on. I’m sure I’ve discussed how critical water is elsewhere but suffice it to say that water is involved in nearly everything we do and need to stay alive. And, I’m willing to be that most of us do NOT have nearly an equivalent level of water storage as we do food storage because, well, it’s just plain hard to store a lot of water.
That’s not to say we shouldn’t have water re-supply plans via rainwater catchment or underground wells, but what happens if a truly long term drought ensues? I’m not talking about a few weeks or months, but years? Sure, you’re going to figure out how to use even less water than you thought you could, you’ll work to collect water from more sources and from further away, you may even consider recycling water in a variety of ways. But, sadly, that will only get you so far. And as time rolls on water may be harder and harder to come by. What will you do then?
I’ll be honest, I don’t have a great answer for this. Perhaps the most viable option is to build a larger cistern–something that can hold tens of thousands of gallons of water. A modern day example would be an average swimming pool, but even these aren’t perfect because they can crack and lose water or become contaminated.
Conclusion
Ultimately, if you’re expecting to rely upon a fairly continuous re-supply of water (from whatever source) you may be quickly disappointed in any true, long-term drought. You may need to have enough water stored to last you for several months without any significant re-supply. Likewise, if you expect that you can grow crops each year you may be in for a shock.
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