How Bad is Inflation, Really?

I’d imagine you’ve seen some of the numbers lately. Inflation is up several percentage points according to the “official” numbers. But then I see statistics like:

• Eggs up 49%
• Butter up 34%
• Bread up 15%
• Fats and Oils up 21%
• Coffee up 15%

Even those don’t seem right. I won’t harp on the price of eggs, but I’d say they’re double or triple what they’ve traditionally been. So, yeah, I don’t trust any of the numbers I’ve seen recently.

Truth be told, I don’t pay much attention to the price of anything. I figure that if I need it, then I’m just going to buy it. Of course, this line of thinking is for things that I know we’ll need (like fruits and vegetables) or that are on our grocery list. Luxury items, like snacks and whatnot, are a different story. Perhaps at some point I’ll even have to reconsider what’s on our grocery lists.

Anyway, although I don’t pay much attention to the price of groceries, I have noticed our bills trending higher in general. Whereas I used to be able to go to Costco, for example, and bring home an entire shopping cart for three or four hundred dollars, these days that’s just not happening. Even recently, I went to Sam’s Club and noticed that the packages of black beans and kidney beans are packages of six instead of eight like they used to be. So, they’re at least hitting us with shrinkflation.

I’ve also heard that people are paying more for electricity and natural gas, too, but I haven’t noticed a hike in prices where we live here in the Midwest, so I’m grateful for that. But it wouldn’t surprise me to see at some point this year.

I was also curious is any of the items I buy regularly from Amazon have risen. I’d assumed that they were, but I went back and compared some of the prices for items that I know we’ll need more of soon. Here’s a list of some personal items pricing as of the middle of last week:

• Botanical soap: paid $18.93 in June 2022, $20.65 in early October 2022, $16.92 in December 2022, now $21.15; +11% since June, but there was a price reduction in December.
• Everyone Lotion (pack of 2): paid $19.94 in August 2022 and the same amount in October 2022, now $21.19; +6% since August.
• Method hand soap refill (pack of 6): paid $36.33 in August 2022, now $41.51; +14% since August.
• Spry toothpaste (pack of 2): paid $15.91 in July 2022, now 17.99; +13% since July.
• Now Foods Xyliwhite toothpaste (pack of 4): paid $18.04 in February 2022, $19.17 in July 2022, now $21.50; +19% since February.
• Old Spice deodorant (pack of 3): paid $11.97 in May 2022, now $11.97; 0% change.
• Tea tree lavender shampoo: paid $41.00 in January 2022, $38.25 in May 2022, now 32.99; -19% since January.
• Tea tree mint conditioner: paid $44.50 in November 2022, now $32.99; -26% since November.
• Oral B glide floss (pack of 6): paid $20.58 in February 2022, now $19.94; -3% since February.

I’d say that list was hit or miss. A few products, like soaps and lotions, went up, but shampoo and conditioner went down. Granted, these are the specific items we use, so your pricing may be different for whatever it is you use.

I was curious about some of the vitamins we use:

• Vitamin D3 drops: paid $16.80 in May 2022, now $17.85; +6% since May.
• Cal/Mag/Zinc supplement: paid $15.49 in February 2022, now $15.90; +2.6% since February.
• Sodium Ascorbate (Vitamin C) supplement: paid $19.99 in February 2022, now $18.99; -5% since February.
• Super greens: paid $29.95 in June 2022, $29.95 in December 2022, now $26.96; -10% since June.

As for these specific vitamins and the super greens which is a powder we put in our fruit smoothies, there was relatively little change. It was interesting to see that the vitamin C and super greens we use went down in price.

What about some non-personal items? Here’s a few other items I’d bought last year that I was curious about:

• Energizer flashlight: paid $25.48 in August 2022, now $27.97; +10% since August.
• Aootek outdoor motion sensor lights (pack of 4): paid $59.95 in June 2022, now $59.95; no change.
• Streamlight lantern: paid $27.50 in February 2022, now 23.99; -13% since February.

Again, one item went up, one went down, and the other stayed the same.

So, what can I conclude about my Amazon purchases and inflation? It’s hit or miss to be sure. Truth be told, I probably wouldn’t have noticed the rise (or fall) in prices for any of these items if I hadn’t looked at previous purchases.

The price of food, however, is becoming noticeable. Others might say the same thing about utilities. If I had to focus on anything, then I would purchase food now. Buy anything shelf-stable, bulk foods, and vegetable seeds. At the very least, you’ll eat whatever you purchase at some point. My guess is that you’ll also be saving money when the cost rises in the very near future. And, if worse comes to worst, you’ll ensure you have something to eat if/when you can’t get what you need.