Solar Flare 2024?

We had our first snow of the winter earlier this week (see photo above of a part of my yard). It was quite a beautiful sight for all of about five minutes, until I went to get some chicken scratch from the garage and nearly slipped. It’s small things like this which remind me just how fragile life can be.

As is often the case, I got to thinking that winter would completely suck if we had to survive without utilities. About the worst that happens around here when it snows is getting my socks wet because I was too lazy to put on boots when I go outside for something. Yeah, I may be a prepper, but I’m still spoiled to a degree. 🙂

That got me to thinking about how I’m grateful for the folks who keep our power (and water) going with very little interruption. The folks who brave the roads and weather to fix things when they break, day or night, must be standup people.

And I’m grateful to the natural gas company who ensures we keep warm all winter long. As I write this, we’re bracing for extremely cold weather here in the Kansas City area, cold enough that I’m concerned for my chickens and ducks. They should survive, but they’re going to have some really miserable nights.

Enough sidetracking.

Let me get to the topic: massive solar flares in early 2024? I’d been hearing rumblings of solar flares being a concern because our Sun is entering (or has it already entered?) a solar maximum, which brings about the possibility for more/larger/deadlier solar storms. And, while the odds of a devastating direct hit on Earth is relatively low–a few percentage points at best, from what I gather elsewhere–that’s high enough that I’m beginning to ponder it.

[As an interesting side note, if you watch the video linked above, the first concern of the Indian scientists regarding a solar flare was the internet being down for weeks. Really? No mention of the ENTIRE power grid? You know, that pesky little utility that not only makes life about as easy as possible, but tends to keep us alive! At least they suggested GPS may be down, too. Lol.]

So, I was surprised to see it brought up on a YouTube financial channel that I enjoy watching. Here’s the video if you’d like to watch it:

Truth be told, I never put much emphasis on preparing for a solar storm or CME (coronal mass ejection) event. After all, there was so much more that could happen around here–tornadoes, flooding, thunderstorms, earthquakes, and more–that it didn’t even make my list of plausible concerns. Until now.

Sadly, a direct hit to our grid could devastate the land. Some say it would be akin to the devastation expected by a manmade EMP, but much worse because of the intensity and duration that solar storms can produce. Others say it might be little more than an inconvenience, such as the internet or GPS being down for a few days or weeks. I’m sure you can guess which side of the fence I’m on, but I’ll still hope and pray that the doomsayers are wrong about this one.

Perhaps the only historical example we have is the Carrington even in 1859, which is discussed in the video above. That event was no joke as this article discusses:

“In addition to setting the telegraph lines almost literally on fire, the storm sent auroras almost to the equator. Confused birds woke up and started singing. In at least one location confused people woke up, got breakfast and went to work. Some people, unable to sleep, caught up on their reading…by the light of the aurora alone.

The sky turned red.

Storms like this are, of course, rare. But in 1859, they disrupted the telegraph system enough to cause problems.”

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I can only image how much such an occurrence would affect our entirely grid-dependent society. I know I’m preaching to the choir, but I’m afraid that nearly everyone I know isn’t remotely prepared for such a catastrophe. A world without power, even for only a few weeks, could be dire in the right circumstances, such as during an extreme cold snap that we’re about to get hit with.

But even I, as a prepper, wouldn’t be sitting pretty because it’s not just about avoiding freezing to death. Cooking food, for example, could be problematic because most of my plans regarding cooking meals revolves around going outside to use the BBQ grill, some sort of stove that uses firewood, or a solar oven. But the solar oven only works when the sun is shining (it’s been overcast for days now), the BBQ grill only works so long as I have propane, and a campfire of any sort just to cook a meal sounds downright horrible with the way the wind has been howling and the windchill hovering in the teens as I write this. And windchill here in Kansas City is expected to drop to dangerously low extremes for a few days. (I’m pretty sure I can eat oatmeal cold for a few days.)

Sure, I could connect a crockpot to the inverter and cook indoors. I could erect something to block the wind while I cook outdoors. And I could absolute stockpile more propane. There are options, but I like my conveniences and routines as much as the next guy. But cooking meals, or even heating up water for coffee, is only one of many truly difficult problems.

Take water, for example, Maybe you have water stored, but it won’t do you much good if it freezes when the power goes out–and stays out–for weeks. How will you keep your water storage from freezing? Interestingly, my large water storage containers (55-gallon drums and IBC totes) don’t seem to freeze, even though the drums are in an unheated garage and the totes are outdoors, but individual water bottles do. [I know that has to do with their relative volumes.] Maybe this won’t be a problem where you live or when you need them, but I prefer not to leave my survival up to chance.

How about heat? We’re all so accustomed to being comfortable, I’m afraid, that we forgot what it feels like to be horribly cold or to even have to deal with it aside from shuffling from the house to the car and back again. Clearly, if we experienced such bitter coldness on a regular basis, I wouldn’t have to remind you to stockpile warm clothing and have a means to stay warm, such as with a woodburning stove.

Speaking of which, what is your plan to stay warm if the power goes out for days or longer? I don’t mean your plan for keeping alive, but for staying relatively warm. That is, warm enough so you don’t remain huddled under five layers of sleeping blankets the entire day. Warm enough that the pipes won’t freeze. Warm enough that you can function well enough to cook a meal or read a bedtime story to your kids. Warm enough that your 75-pound Golden Retriever doesn’t want to be a lapdog all day long.

I don’t want to go through the entire list of potential problems today, but I will mention that:

• You’ll be without light for sure.
• Your toilet bowls may crack and your sewage may backup into your home.
• Showers WILL be shockingly cold! (if not sparce once the water towers run out of water).
• And you refrigerator food may end up getting warmer than your house.

Those sound like fun problems, don’t they? Not really.

I haven’t even mentioned what happens if a Carrington event occurs during a summer heatwave. My guess is that you’ll wish you had died when the air-conditioning stops working. Again, we’re so used to being comfortable that anything above 72 feels stifling. Am I right?

Did I mention that your food could spoil within months? Even MREs, which are designed with long shelf-lives, won’t last longer than six months at about 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Yeah, I know that’s a relatively long time and not an entirely realistic temperature 24/7, but what chance do you think your can of beans has in similar conditions? The same can be said for nearly all of your perishable supplies. None of it does well in the heat…or humidity, for that matter.

And none of that tackles perhaps your biggest problem–other people. Granted, most folks will probably choose to hunker down and tough it out for a few days, but when they find that they just can’t take it any longer, odds are good that they’ll brave the elements and look for something, anything…or anyone who can help, even if it means helping themselves to your stuff. Ugh.

The moral of the story is this: Everything is 10x more problematic when the power goes out, and stays out, for longer than a few hours. Sometimes it makes life difficult; other times it makes life perilous.

All you can do is to prepare while you still can. I don’t know if or when a solar flare will strike. It could be tomorrow or 100 years from now. But I can say that you’ll be kicking yourself if you don’t do something while you had the chance.