Rationing sounds like something from an old World War II movie. You might picture ration books, gasoline coupons, and people saving bacon grease for the war effort. Except rationing isn’t only for the history books.
Right now, several countries are restricting fuel use or sales. Others have cut exports, limited certain uses, or asked people to conserve energy. The International Energy Agency says the current Middle East conflict has caused the largest oil supply disruption in global oil market history. Governments have responded with everything from conservation campaigns to work-from-home policies and fuel rationing.
That gets my attention because I could see this happening here relatively soon.
I’m not saying Americans will receive gasoline ration cards next week. Nobody knows where this goes. Still, rationing never appears out of nowhere. Shortages in supplies, damaged production, blocked shipping routes, export bans, rising prices, and government controls tend to show up first.
And we’re seeing plenty of those warning signs now throughout the globe.
What’s Being Rationed Now
Fuel is the obvious place to start.
Russia has dealt with widespread gasoline and diesel shortages after repeated attacks damaged refineries. Some regions imposed sales limits, while the government restricted exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to protect domestic supplies. As recently as September, more refinery shutdowns were adding to the problem.
Cuba has faced an even tougher fuel problem. Earlier this year, the Cuban government announced fuel rationing and other restrictions while trying to keep hospitals, transportation, schools, and other essential services operating. Jet fuel became scarce enough that international flights were affected.
Liquefied petroleum gas, better known as LPG, has also come under pressure. That’s a big deal because hundreds of millions of people depend on it for cooking, heating, and a lot more, like extracting Sulfur for fertilizer production.
According to the IEA, LPG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell by about 80% in March compared with the 2025 average, though that may be rising of late. Some governments responded by rationing non-essential LPG uses in order to protect cooking supplies.
When pressed, officials may reserve supplies for farming, emergency services, trucking, or heavy industry, which means less for you and me. The end result feels much the same when you’re the last on the list of recipients. Thankfully, we’re not seeing major rationing in the States just yet.
And then there are shortages without formal rationing. Those matter to us, too, because if a product isn’t available or at a reasonable price, it doesn’t matter much whether a government rationing effort caused the problem or not. It’s just not there or simply too expensive.
What Could Be Rationed Next
Diesel concerns me most right now. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects American distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, to remain unusually low. Its forecast says inventories will fall below 100 million barrels and remain below the five-year low through much of 2027. Global diesel supplies have tightened as Middle Eastern and Russian output has fallen as well. That doesn’t mean U.S. diesel rationing is certainly coming, but I wouldn’t bet on things turning around anytime soon.
Think about what runs on diesel: trucks haul groceries, medicine, building supplies, and nearly everything else we buy; farmers use diesel during planting and harvest; construction equipment burns it; many backup generators need it; emergency services depend on it.
A diesel shortage doesn’t stay at the diesel pump because it works its way into food prices, shipping costs on all that stuff you need, farm production for the coming year, construction projects big and small, and more. Even people who don’t own a diesel vehicle will feel the effects, although they may not realize the source.
Heating oil could become another concern, especially during winter. The EIA already warns that low distillate stocks can push heating oil prices higher in the Northeast. Jet fuel is under pressure, too. (I read a while back that airlines were adding extra fuel charges to tickets that people already purchased! But I couldn’t verify that being the case here in the States.)
I’m not trying to turn every ugly energy report into proof that we’re headed for government controls, but shortages have a pecking order … and your needs don’t count.
What about food?
I don’t expect the government to pull out food ration books soon. The more likely problem is that energy shortages raise the cost of producing and moving food, often up to a year out. Certain products could disappear from shelves for short periods (especially from abroad), stores could impose purchase limits (like Costco has done with motor oil), and prices could climb, nonetheless.
We’ve already seen how quickly stores limit purchases during hurricanes, winter storms, and pandemics. Toilet paper taught everybody that lesson in a rather silly way back during Covid.
Long-term food costs and scarcity concerns deserve attention here simply because farming depends so heavily on diesel. If fuel stays expensive or scarce long enough, those costs will show up at the grocery store, albeit months later. I’ve even see comments about farmers considering not planting or harvesting because of rising diesel prices, which will only increase price pressures and shortages.
We’ve Done This Before
World War II gives us the best American example. After the United States entered the war, the government rationed gasoline, tires, fuel oil, coal, sugar, coffee, meat, canned foods, fats, shoes, automobiles, and other goods. Buyers often needed both money and the right stamps, coupons, points, or certificates to get what they needed. Some shortages were caused by military demand, while others came from lost imports and disrupted shipping. Regardless, ordinary folks did without.
Rubber is a good example. Japan’s advance across Southeast Asia cut the United States off from major sources of natural rubber. Tires became hard to replace, which was one reason gasoline rationing also helped reduce driving and tire wear.
Food had similar problems.
Sugar supplies fell after the Philippines were captured. Shipping disruptions also hurt coffee imports. Cooking oil supplies were cut when Pacific sources disappeared. The military needed huge amounts of canned food, meat, fats, and other supplies.
Rationing didn’t mean the product was free, either. You still had to pay for it! Your ration stamps merely gave you permission to buy a set amount if the item was even available. That’s a detail people sometimes forget.
Then came the 1973 oil embargo.
The federal government considered full gasoline rationing and went far enough to print billions of ration coupons. It also established an Office of Gasoline Rationing. The embargo ended before nationwide federal gasoline rationing was put into effect, so those coupons never became part of daily life.
That said, Americans still dealt with long gasoline lines, allocation rules, Sunday station closures, conservation efforts, and restrictive purchase systems in some places. President Nixon ended the Sunday closure order in March 1974 after the embargo was lifted.
In other words, a country doesn’t need formal nationwide ration books before things get truly uncomfortable. That’s the part preppers should remember.
Granted, I’m not interested in hoarding five years of toilet paper or turning my garage into an improvised gasoline depot. But I am interested in having enough of the things my household uses so a short-term limit doesn’t become an instant emergency.
Food is the easy example. Buy what you already eat, keep extra on hand, and rotate it. The same idea works with common household supplies, batteries, hygiene items, pet food, medicines where appropriate, and other things you know you’ll need.
Fuel requires more care because storage creates fire, legal, insurance, and shelf-life concerns. If you store gasoline, diesel, propane, kerosene, or other fuels, do it safely and follow local rules. Don’t turn a preparedness plan into a visit from the fire department or an excuse for your insurance company to drop you!
You should also think beyond any one product itself.
For example, if diesel gets scarce, how does that affect deliveries of medications? If LPG becomes hard to find, can you cook another way off grid? If gasoline purchases are limited, how long can you go without needing to restock?
Those are the types of questions that matter.
I wrote Sold Out Forever around this broader problem: what happens when the things we’ve come to depend on become difficult or impossible to replace? Rationing is one way that happens. Supply failures, wars, trade problems, natural disasters, and production losses can cause the same trouble. And that’s to say nothing of our current money problems.
Nobody knows how far the current energy problems will go. The situation could improve, shipping could recover, refineries could come back online, and inventories could rebuild.
I hope that’s what happens. I truly do.
But history gives us enough examples to know that governments will restrict consumption when supplies become scarce enough. Sometimes those limits protect essential services; sometimes stores impose limits first. Either way, you have fewer choices once everybody else realizes there’s a problem, or you’re going to pay for the privilege of purchasing those necessities.
I’d rather have a reasonable cushion beforehand than nothing at all.
If gasoline, diesel, food, or another everyday supply suddenly had purchase limits tomorrow, which one would cause the biggest problem for your household?
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